Cowell, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS66 KMTR 250055
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
555 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 AM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

- Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tide tonight
  along the Bayshore of San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay

- Widespread below normal temperatures through Sunday, slight
  warming trend early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 102 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025
(This evening through Friday)

Temperatures will continue to be below average for this time of year
as a cut-off low pressure remains off of the San Francisco Bay
Area/Central Coast. Thus, expect little day-to-day change in
forecast maximum and minimum temperatures. Low clouds have scattered
out and/or dissipated across the region as of this writing. Low
clouds, coastal drizzle and favored orographic lift locations
across the region once again tonight into early Friday morning.

As the cut-off low moves inland over the San Francisco Bay Area on
Friday, there will be enough MUCAPE (most unstable CAPE) and
generally between 1.10-1.30" of PWATs across the far northern
portions of the North Bay to produce a less than 5% chance of
high based convection. The greatest timeframe will be early to mid-
morning on Friday, yet confidence remains low enough not to include
in the official forecast. Again, afternoon maximum temperatures will
continue to be below average on Friday.

From previous forecaster: "A Coastal Flood Advisory (the last one of
this sequence) is in effect from 9PM Thursday through 2AM Friday.
Minor coastal flooding can be expected during high tide along the
Bayshore of San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. Localized nuisance
flooding can be expected in coastal locations that are directly
next to Richardson Bay such as Sausalito, Tam Valley, Manzanita, the
Sausalito-Mill Valley Bike Path, and the Manzanita Park N Ride. Do
not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth."

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 102 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

As mentioned above, there is enough MUCAPE and PWATs are forecast to
range from 1.10-1.30" across the northern portions of the North Bay
to again result in less than 5% chance of high based convection
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

By Sunday, the upper level cut-off low pressure will be absorbed in
the mean flow aloft. As such, a slight warming trend is forecast for
Sunday afternoon, but only by a few degrees across the interior
while the coast holds steady. Global ensemble clusters then indicate
that the ridge across much of the remainder of the United States
will build westward and into the Intermountain West. This will
result in a warming trend from Monday and throughout the remainder
of the week. However, the coast will remain under the influence of
the marine layer that is forecast to compress as the high pressure
builds westward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Cloud cover is beginning to build along the coast with MVFR CIGS
affecting HAF. These CIGs will begin to fill around the bays move
farther inland into the evening, filling over the Monterey Bay
terminals, ST, and OAK by the early night. Winds look to reduce
across the district into the evening, becoming light to moderate
through the night and much of Friday morning. CIGS continue to
spread deeper inland into the late night with Widespread CIGs
expected. HAF,MRY, and STS look to fall to IFR-level CIGS overnight.
Sites begin to clear in the late morning with most TAF sites going
VFR in the afternoon. The exception will be HAF, which will go from
IFR to MVFR CIGs, but will not clear through the TAF period. Expect
modest wind increases into Friday with most areas peaking around 15
kt winds and the occasional stray gust. Winds reduce again that
evening with CIGs quickly returning into the bays and becoming
widespread again that night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into the evening. Winds reduce slightly
as MVFR CIGs cross over the SF Peninsula and fill over SFO in the
late evening and early night. Cloud cover scatters in the early
afternoon as west winds increase, but re-fills over the terminal
again in the early evening on Friday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Winds look to reduce into the mid evening
but stay moderate as MVFR CIGS build. Winds reduce further into the
night and MRY falls to IFR CIGs, but snaps back to MVFR in the mid
morning. The terminals clear in the early afternoon on Friday as
winds increase, but MVFR CIGs build back into MRY again in the late
afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 555 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Gentle winds will increase to a moderate NW breeze Friday. A
fresh breeze will push through the San Francisco and Monterey Bays
through Friday afternoon, generating occasional whitecaps.
Otherwise low seas will prevail through the weekend. A deep
marine layer will bring consistent low cloud cover and periods of
drizzle.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday
     for CAZ006-506-508.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Canepa

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