Cowell, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS66 KMTR 051729
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1029 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

 - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages into early next
   week.

 - Gradual pattern change bringing warming trend for second half
   of next week begins Wednesday.

 - Marine layer increases and expands farther inland for end of
   the weekend, beginning of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Made a small tweak to the forecast this morning to account for
the eroding stratus. Guidance shows it potentially lingering along
the San Mateo and San Francisco coasts and perhaps the Monterey
Peninsula area today, with mainly sunny skies expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
(Today and tonight)

A weak upper level disturbance has begun to split off from the
northern jet across the Pacific Northwest and will gradually develop
into a cut-off low later tonight, and settle off the Central Coast
by early Sunday morning. Dry air just above the marine layer
continues to make the coastal stratus cloud cover forecast
difficult. A sliver of low stratus can be seen at this hour (3AM
PDT) building south from the Bay Area toward the San Lucia coastal
range, bypassing the Monterey Bay at the moment. Expect stratus to
remain mostly confined to coastal locations where it does develop
with little inland intrusion. Todays temperatures will continue to
be on the cool side with bright sunshine inland and slacking wind
compared to previous couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 320 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

A cut off upper level low will stall off the California Central
Coast over the next few days. As the weak upper system slowly
meanders offshore we should see an improved fetch of moisture above
the marine layer up to approx 500mb, resulting in an expanding
marine layer that will penetrate farther inland as we head into the
beginning of next week. Early morning drizzle and fog may also be
more widespread for the beginning of next week. By Wednesday the
stalled upper low begins to make progress inland. Considerable
uncertainty remains in the forecast for a potential warm up late
next week, however expect temperatures by the end of next week into
next weekend to at least rebound closer to normal, with eyes on some
potential moderate heat risk if the synoptic pattern supports longer
residence time of ridging aloft over our region late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

IFR to MVFR at MRY and HAF this morning with the greatest likelihood
to scatter out at MRY. HAF may maintain ceilings through the TAF
period. Onshore winds increase again this afternoon with high
confidence for IFR to MVFR ceilings returning late tonight across the
Monterey Bay terminals as the marine layer deepens. Moderate to high
confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Bay Area
terminals early Sunday morning and persist through about 17Z-18Z
Sunday. Onshore winds increase again Sunday afternoon, however and
forecast to be weaker than previous days.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon
with gusts to around 25 kt. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR
(potentially lowering to IFR) Sunday morning. Low clouds will
scatter out by around 17Z-18Z Sunday with onshore winds once again
increasing by Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Onshore winds will increase slightly
this afternoon before easing after sunset. High confidence for
IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop around the terminals late this evening
and potentially lowering to LIFR early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze will
continue through the remainder of the weekend. Winds will
diminish late Sunday into Monday with a moderate breeze to
continue through late next week. Occasional gale force gusts are
possible along the Big Sur coastline Saturday afternoon. Winds
increase and significant wave heights build beginning late next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea